A sense of déjà vu at the start of every race
Since ground-effect regulations returned in 2022, a recurring complaint from commentators and fans has been that grid positions lock in during qualifying, and overtakes for the win have become rare.
Rather than settle that debate by ear, this project builds a quantified indicator to track the trend season over season, and compares it objectively to the 2008-2012 era, often cited as a 'golden age' of overtaking.
A composite index, with declared weights
The index combines four signals available for every race, normalized and weighted. A higher score means a statistically more predictable race:
Two eras, four raw indicators
Rather than compressing everything into a single number, here are the raw indicators behind the index, compared between the 'golden age' (2008-2012) and the recent period (2023-2025):
| Metric | Golden Age (2008-2012) | Current Era (2023-2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Composite index (/100) | 52 | 85 |
| Qualifying → race correlation | 0.52 | 0.82 |
| Wins from pole position | 45% | 78% |
| Overtakes per race | 11.8 | 4.2 |
| Different winners / season | 7–8 | 3–4 |
Average overtakes per race
Win rate from pole position
What the 2026 regulations change
The FIA has announced several regulatory changes for 2026, presented as a direct response to this trend. Here are the announced changes and their intended effect — treat these as FIA targets, not results already measured:
Weight
Targeting −30 kg (768 kg), for more agile cars.
Width
1.90 m versus 2.00 m today, to reduce aerodynamic turbulence.
Aerodynamic wake
Targeted reduction of the turbulence generated for a following car, to make overtaking easier.
Power unit
A larger electrical component (up to 470 hp), under new engine regulations.
These changes couldn't be measured on track at the time of writing — the index will only be able to confirm or refute their effect once the 2026 season has been raced.